Market-implied

Atlanta paths

A starter projection board for unknown Atlanta knockout games using seeded market signals, bracket slots, and team strength context.

Locked in

Confirmed Atlanta matchups

confirmed

Match 80

England vs Congo DR

Round of 32 in Atlanta. This fixture is locked by the completed group table.

Atlanta forecast

Open Atlanta matchup projections

12,000 runs

Match 95

Argentina vs Egypt

56%

matchup

Round of 16 in Atlanta. This is the single most common pairing from the current Monte Carlo bracket run.

Argentina vs Egypt56%

Argentina vs Australia43%

Cabo Verde vs Egypt1%

Match 102

England vs Argentina

34%

matchup

Semi-final in Atlanta. This is the single most common pairing from the current Monte Carlo bracket run.

England vs Argentina34%

Brazil vs Argentina33%

Mexico vs Argentina9%

Current USA lane

USA path to winning it all

model title chance

Match 81

Round of 32

vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

100% of USA title-run simulations

Wed, Jul 1 | 8:00 PM ET

Match 94

Round of 16

vs Belgium

60% of USA title-run simulations

Mon, Jul 6 | 5:00 PM ET

Match 98

Quarter-final

vs Spain

51% of USA title-run simulations

Fri, Jul 10 | 7:00 PM ET

Match 101

Semi-final

vs France

62% of USA title-run simulations

Tue, Jul 14 | 8:00 PM ET

Match 104

Final

vs Argentina

33% of USA title-run simulations

Sun, Jul 19 | 4:00 PM ET

Open Atlanta Knockout Projections

Seeded

Match 95 | Round of 16

W86 vs W88

ATL

Tue, Jul 7 | 12:00 PM ETMercedes-Benz StadiumTV: FOX

Argentina

Round of 16 model candidate

99%

high

Egypt

Round of 16 model candidate

56%

high

Australia

Round of 16 model candidate

44%

medium

Match 102 | Semi-final

W99 vs W100

ATL

Wed, Jul 15 | 3:00 PM ETMercedes-Benz StadiumTV: FOX

Argentina

Semi-final model candidate

78%

high

England

Semi-final model candidate

44%

medium

Brazil

Semi-final model candidate

41%

medium

Path movement

Daily snapshots let the tracker show whether Atlanta paths are heating up or cooling off as markets and the model move.

Argentina

M102 | Polymarket and results refresh

78.2%

+0.2 pts

Portugal

M095 | Polymarket and results refresh

0.0%

+0.0 pts

Spain

M102 | Polymarket and results refresh

0.0%

+0.0 pts

Atlanta Model12,000 runs

Match 80 | Round of 32

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

England100.0%

Congo DR100.0%

Match 95 | Round of 16

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

Argentina99.1%

Egypt56.5%

Australia43.5%

Cabo Verde0.9%

Match 102 | Semi-final

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

Argentina78.2%

England43.9%

Brazil41.5%

Mexico12.0%

Colombia10.6%

Switzerland8.3%

Market Boards

Tournament favorites

France

Polymarket

35%

Argentina

Polymarket

18%

Spain

Polymarket

10%

England

Polymarket

Brazil

Polymarket

Netherlands

Polymarket

Portugal

Polymarket

Germany

Polymarket

Mexico

Polymarket

United States

Polymarket

Colombia

Polymarket

Morocco

Polymarket

Norway

Polymarket

Belgium

Polymarket

Japan

Polymarket

Switzerland

Polymarket

Ecuador

Polymarket

Turkiye

Polymarket

Croatia

Polymarket

Canada

Polymarket

Senegal

Polymarket

Cote d'Ivoire

Polymarket

Uruguay

Polymarket

Paraguay

Polymarket

Australia

Polymarket

Egypt

Polymarket

Austria

Polymarket

Sweden

Polymarket

Tunisia

Polymarket

New Zealand

Polymarket

Iran

Polymarket

Uzbekistan

Polymarket

South Korea

Polymarket

Jordan

Polymarket

South Africa

Polymarket

Ghana

Polymarket

Algeria

Polymarket

Cabo Verde

Polymarket

Qatar

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

Polymarket

Scotland

Polymarket

Haiti

Polymarket

Curaçao

Polymarket

Panama

Polymarket

Congo DR

Polymarket

Iraq

Polymarket

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Polymarket

Czechia

Polymarket

Group winner signals

Argentina

Group J | Polymarket

99%

Spain

Group H | Polymarket

98%

Mexico

Group A | Polymarket

96%

England

Group L | Polymarket

95%

France

Group I | Polymarket

94%

Belgium

Group G | Polymarket

86%

Germany

Group E | Polymarket

84%

Netherlands

Group F | Polymarket

81%

United States

Group D | Polymarket

79%

Brazil

Group C | Polymarket

72%

Switzerland

Group B | Polymarket

68%

Portugal

Group K | Polymarket

67%

Colombia

Group K | Polymarket

32%

Morocco

Group C | Polymarket

27%

Canada

Group B | Polymarket

23%

Japan

Group F | Polymarket

16%

Turkiye

Group D | Polymarket

13%

Ecuador

Group E | Polymarket

10%

Egypt

Group G | Polymarket

Norway

Group I | Polymarket

Cote d'Ivoire

Group E | Polymarket

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group B | Polymarket

Qatar

Group B | Polymarket

Paraguay

Group D | Polymarket

Australia

Group D | Polymarket

Croatia

Group L | Polymarket

Iran

Group G | Polymarket

New Zealand

Group G | Polymarket

Sweden

Group F | Polymarket

Uruguay

Group H | Polymarket

South Africa

Group A | Polymarket

South Korea

Group A | Polymarket

Czechia

Group A | Polymarket

Curaçao

Group E | Polymarket

Austria

Group J | Polymarket

Tunisia

Group F | Polymarket

Senegal

Group I | Polymarket

Congo DR

Group K | Polymarket

Uzbekistan

Group K | Polymarket

Ghana

Group L | Polymarket

Panama

Group L | Polymarket

Haiti

Group C | Polymarket

Scotland

Group C | Polymarket

Cabo Verde

Group H | Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

Group H | Polymarket

Algeria

Group J | Polymarket

Jordan

Group J | Polymarket

Iraq

Group I | Polymarket

Market movers

Uruguay-65%

South Korea63%

Belgium-60%

United States51%

France17%

Portugal-17%

Colombia16%

Netherlands12%

France11%

Belgium11%

Norway-11%

Egypt-10%

Uzbekistan-8%

Japan7%

Bosnia & Herzegovina-7%

Morocco7%

Mexico7%

Brazil-6%

Germany6%

Germany-6%

Turkiye-5%

Portugal4%

Algeria-4%

Saudi Arabia4%

Spain-4%

Canada4%

Argentina3%

Ecuador-3%

Germany3%

Norway-3%

Portugal3%

Argentina3%

England3%

Belgium3%

Croatia-3%

Switzerland3%

Portugal-2%

Mexico2%

South Africa-2%

South Korea-2%

Czechia-2%

Iran2%

Ecuador-2%

Uruguay2%

France2%

Croatia2%

Mexico2%

South Korea-2%

Cote d'Ivoire-2%

France2%

Cabo Verde2%

Paraguay-2%

England2%

Bosnia & Herzegovina2%

England-2%

United States-2%

Norway-2%

Germany-1%

Colombia1%

Canada-1%

Brazil-1%

Scotland1%

Turkiye-1%

Netherlands1%

Spain-1%

Norway-1%

Colombia1%

Switzerland1%

Mexico-1%

Japan-1%

Egypt1%

Belgium-1%

Colombia-1%

Switzerland1%

Brazil1%

Morocco1%

Egypt-1%

Senegal1%

Morocco1%

Norway1%

Spain1%

France1%

Austria-1%

Mexico-1%

Morocco1%

Turkiye1%

Argentina1%

Brazil1%

England-1%

Austria-1%

Netherlands1%

Japan-1%

Iran-1%

New Zealand-1%

Qatar1%

Croatia1%

Cabo Verde-1%

Belgium0%

Senegal0%

Ecuador0%

Uruguay0%

Paraguay0%

Australia0%

United States0%

South Korea0%

Haiti0%

Scotland0%

Saudi Arabia0%

Switzerland0%

Cote d'Ivoire0%

Egypt0%

Cabo Verde0%

Scotland0%

Austria0%

Sweden0%

Congo DR0%

Bosnia & Herzegovina0%

Iraq0%

Ghana0%

Panama0%

Congo DR0%

Uzbekistan0%

Algeria0%

Jordan0%

Spain0%

Switzerland0%

Sweden0%

Argentina0%

Austria0%

Portugal0%

France0%

England0%

Ghana0%

Czechia0%

Canada0%

United States0%

Brazil0%

Turkiye0%

Netherlands0%

Spain0%

Argentina0%

Spain0%

Uruguay0%

Canada0%

Tunisia0%

Paraguay0%

New Zealand0%

Australia0%

Iran0%

Uzbekistan0%

Jordan0%

South Africa0%

Senegal0%

Ghana0%

Algeria0%

Qatar0%

Saudi Arabia0%

Croatia0%

Haiti0%

Curaçao0%

Panama0%

Iraq0%

Czechia0%

Turkiye0%

Germany0%

Curaçao0%

Cote d'Ivoire0%

Ecuador0%

Netherlands0%

Japan0%

Sweden0%

Tunisia0%